No, Polymarket Whales Aren’t Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

This can be a long-winded manner of claiming the market is rarely “mistaken.” It merely displays all out there info. In the event you appropriately disagree with the market, you may be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them beneath a regulatory settlement. In the event you consider the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is mistaken, you possibly can merely wager in opposition to her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Despite the fact that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win to your wager to repay – when you thought her “actual” odds have been 55%, you’ll be shopping for one thing price 55 cents for 40 cents at the moment. Even when you may not be keen to do this, different market contributors will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (probably misinformed) whale, you’ll anticipate the chances to say no as merchants incorporate this new info. Until after all, the prediction markets are usually dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.