Kamala Harris emerged because the perceived victor over Donald Trump of their first US presidential debate, based mostly on insights from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket.
Though Harris’ debate efficiency boosted her probabilities, each candidates stay neck and neck in Polymarket’s betting contract for the general election end result.
This was the second debate of the 2024 election season and the primary one between Harris and Trump, with Harris’ marketing campaign advocating for a 3rd debate.
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Polymarket bettors have been extremely engaged all through the occasion, which kicked off with an sudden second: a handshake between the 2 candidates. It was Trump’s first debate handshake since 2016, when he confronted Hillary Clinton. Earlier than the occasion, the probabilities of this handshake occurring have been positioned at solely 30%, with round $360,000 using on the end result.
Bettors had set low expectations for any point out of crypto or Bitcoin (BTC) through the debate, with odds at 26% for Trump and simply 14% for Harris. Their predictions have been spot on—whereas the talk included segments on the financial system, it didn’t contact on matters like cryptocurrency, know-how, or monetary insurance policies.
Customers present excessive confidence that Harris will emerge as the talk’s winner, with a 99% likelihood that polls will declare her the victor. Moreover, they’ve positioned a 59% likelihood that Harris would change into the favourite in Polymarket’s election contract the day after the talk.
Total, betting on the 2024 presidential election has reached a complete of almost $860 million, reflecting how carefully watched and contentious this race has change into.
In different information, the Trump household has revealed the purpose of its upcoming mission: to advertise decentralized finance and US dollar-pegged stablecoins.
Gode is a Web3 Market Analyst who researches an important trade occasions and interprets how they have an effect on the broader Web3 house. Her formal schooling in media tradition & digital rhetoric permits her to make use of a methodical method to evaluating important Web3 information knowledge, together with large-scale occasions and the broader social sentiment inside the ecosystem.Gode is a mutilingual skilled, having studied in a number of universities all throughout Europe. This permits her to have a one-of-a-kind alternative to investigate Web3 social sentiments spanning completely different cultures and languages and, in flip, develop a a lot deeper understanding of how the Web3 house is rising inside completely different communities. With the remainder of her group, Gode works to establish essential crypto information patterns and supply unbiased and data-driven info.Gode’s passions embrace working and speaking with individuals, and when she’s not researching Web3 information, she spends her time touring and watching true crime documentaries.
