Realized volatility measures how a lot an asset’s worth fluctuated over a previous interval and is usually calculated by taking the usual deviation of each day (typically log) returns and annualizing it. It differs from implied volatility, which displays market expectations for future worth swings.
Realized volatility is essential as a result of it captures precise market threat and helps traders gauge whether or not worth actions align with their threat tolerance. It additionally reveals when markets are careworn, as massive worth swings drive up volatility.
Because the starting of March, Bitcoin has seen a turbulent market characterised by speedy worth swings. Coming off a extreme late-February sell-off, the opening days of March noticed Bitcoin stage a dramatic rally adopted by an equally sharp pullback. These abrupt actions brought about realized volatility to rise considerably.
The speedy ups and downs in early March fueled a pointy surge in one-week realized volatility. Merchants noticed among the most important single-day share adjustments in months, main short-term volatility measures to climb nicely above regular ranges. As main worth fluctuations continued, two-week and one-month realized volatility measures additionally rose. Longer-term metrics tended to seize the mixed volatility of February’s sell-off and March’s rebound, driving them upward.
Whereas volatility peaked within the first three days of March, it steadily fell because the market tried to stabilize. The one-week studying barely declined, reflecting considerably calmer worth motion, although broader volatility remained larger than in earlier months.
Bitcoin exhibited the traditional sample of volatility clustering—a quiet interval adopted by a storm. Earlier than the late-February collapse, Bitcoin’s worth had been comparatively steady (volatility was low by January and early February). This calm was abruptly damaged by late February’s crash, which led to a regime of excessive volatility that carried into March.
Traditionally, low volatility lulls typically precede sharp spikes in crypto and conventional markets. On this case, weeks of consolidation have been adopted by probably the most risky episode in months, validating the concept stability can breed instability as market stress quietly builds after which releases.
By definition, realized volatility is derived from worth actions, so it’s no shock that the spikes in realized vol coincided with sizeable each day worth swings. Nevertheless, it’s value noting the symmetry: the volatility surged whatever the worth course. In early March, someday’s excessive rally and the subsequent day’s steep plunge each contributed to the volatility spike. This underlines that realized volatility measures magnitude, not whether or not strikes are up or down.
Throughout that week, Bitcoin’s upward swing (March 1 – March 2) and downward swing (March 2 – March 4) have been each big, and collectively they pushed 7-day volatility off the charts. Merchants noticed that intervals of excessive realized volatility corresponded exactly to the times of frantic buying and selling and massive candles on the worth chart.
Each time Bitcoin’s each day candles expanded (lengthy wicks/our bodies indicating vital intraday ranges), the trailing realized volatility metrics rose in tandem. This tight correlation held all through March: when worth actions calmed, short-term volatility measures additionally fell.
These excessive fluctuations signaled vital market stress. As damaging sentiment and promoting stress emerged in late February, shorter-term realized volatility spiked. This bolstered that top volatility sometimes signifies heightened threat.
Considerations surrounding a brand new wave of commerce disputes helped set off the late February drop and continued influencing March markets. Buyers fled riskier property like Bitcoin amid renewed uncertainty, contributing to the heightened volatility.
The anticipation surrounding a White Home summit on crypto, plus hypothesis about governmental actions concerning its proposed crypto reserve, added to the market-wide anxiousness. Bitcoin is extremely delicate to regulatory alerts, so any potential adjustments in stance additional fanned volatility.
Monitoring realized volatility can present early warning of fixing market regimes — on this case, the eruption of volatility confirmed a regime shift from bull-market complacency to turbulent correction. Second, evaluating worth motion with realized volatility helps establish extraordinary strikes.
In March, the truth that 1-week volatility exceeded 100% indicated that the worth swings weren’t simply massive — they have been traditionally vital for Bitcoin. It additionally confirmed that Bitcoin doesn’t commerce in isolation. Occasions like coverage adjustments, financial knowledge, and world crises instantly feed into its volatility. March 2025’s volatility resulted from crypto-specific elements and exterior shocks (like tariffs and regulatory shifts).
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