Bitcoin Will Soar, Altcoins Won’t—Charles Edwards Explains Why

In an interview with Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, also called @JuhyukB, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards laid out a hanging divergence within the crypto asset markets: whereas Bitcoin may double this yr, altcoins stay structurally impaired and much from any significant rotation.

Bitcoin Might Hit $200,000 This Yr

Talking from the attitude of a macro quant hedge fund operator, Edwards was unequivocally bullish on Bitcoin, stating, “If the info stays within the present development we’re in, I feel $150–200K is certainly doable this yr.” The founding father of Capriole, a fund recognized for pioneering on-chain valuation fashions like Hash Ribbons, Power Worth, and the Macro Index, grounded this forecast in an internet of interlocking technical, sentiment, and macroeconomic alerts.

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“We’re printing new all-time highs on every day and weekly closes,” Edwards famous. “So long as we keep above $104K […] so long as the Macro Index traits up, and US liquidity continues to rise, this setting may be very bullish.”

Capriole’s proprietary Macro Index—a machine studying mannequin aggregating over 100 inputs from Fed liquidity to bond and fairness markets—has turned decisively constructive. Bitcoin’s rally, Edwards emphasised, is additional bolstered by metrics like MVRV Z-Rating, Hodler Development Charges, and Power Worth, all signaling room for enlargement.

However whereas Bitcoin exhibits power throughout a number of dimensions, altcoins are telling a really totally different story.

The Demise Of The Previous Altcoin Cycle

Edwards avoided naming particular altcoins however delivered a transparent macro verdict: the capital movement dynamics have modified, and altcoins are not on an equal footing with Bitcoin. “Structurally, issues are fairly a bit totally different this cycle […] the largest driving forces are Bitcoin ETFs and US coverage. That’s making a centralizing impact—funneling capital straight into Bitcoin,” he defined.

He pointed to the historic cycles of retail-led altcoin rallies, adopted by catastrophic drawdowns—usually exceeding 99% losses. “Retail has simply gotten destroyed,” he stated bluntly. “There’s a fatigue within the altcoin house that wasn’t there 4 or 5 years in the past.”

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The legacy of failed ICOs, damaged tokenomics, and occasions just like the FTX collapse have left lasting scars. In the meantime, establishments are avoiding the dangers and complexity of smaller-cap digital property, opting as a substitute for regulated Bitcoin publicity by way of ETFs and company treasury allocations. “It was once extra of a stage enjoying discipline. That’s not the case,” Edwards stated. “The true cash is flowing into Bitcoin—and that in all probability continues for some time.”

When Will Altcoins Wake Up?

Regardless of the grim tone, Edwards doesn’t dismiss altcoins solely. He views a robust altcoin cycle as conditional—not not possible, however depending on clear Bitcoin dominance first.

Utilizing Capriole’s Hypothesis Index and Crypto Breadth fashions, which monitor the relative power and worth motion of altcoins, he made a key statement: “Proper now, solely 5% of altcoins are above their 200-day shifting common. That’s not bullish.”

He in contrast the present setup to late 2020, when Bitcoin surged from $10K to $60K earlier than altcoins started outperforming. That rotation required Bitcoin to first breach earlier all-time highs decisively. “You need Bitcoin to hit one thing like $140K whereas alts are nonetheless underperforming. That will be the perfect setup […] that’s when capital begins rotating downstream,” he defined.

Conversely, if altcoins start pumping prematurely, whereas Bitcoin stays vary sure, Edwards sees that as a prime sign. “That’s normally the final puff of air,” he warned.

Cycles Are Altering, Dangers Are Evolving

Past worth motion, Edwards questioned the relevance of conventional halving cycles. He argued that the influence of miners—as soon as the first driver of Bitcoin provide dynamics—has diminished considerably resulting from ETFs, company treasuries, and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor. “That four-year cycle is useless—or at the least dramatically weaker. Miners at the moment are simply 2–3% of the entire provide movement. The true drivers at the moment are establishments,” he stated.

This evolution reduces the chance of 80% drawdowns and will increase the danger of systemic leverage—significantly from publicly traded Bitcoin-heavy corporations. Whereas not a direct concern, Edwards sees potential for long-term vulnerabilities if main gamers overextend.

Edwards additionally mentioned diversification inside Capriole’s portfolio. Whereas Bitcoin stays the agency’s core allocation, he revealed publicity to quantum computing equities like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS), and QUBT. “I feel quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s early, it’s risky, however the long-term CAGR may very well be even greater than Bitcoin’s.”

He added that gold additionally performs a strategic position, not as a substitute however as a hedge. Capriole displays the gold-to-equity ratio carefully, and its breakout above the 200-day shifting common is seen as a traditionally bullish sign—each for gold and Bitcoin.

In closing, Edwards urged buyers to tune out many of the monetary information cycle. “Most likely 99% of headlines don’t matter,” he stated. As an alternative, give attention to game-changing shifts: Fed pivots, world liquidity expansions, and true structural reconfigurations of capital movement. “We’re wired to overreact to dangerous information. The secret’s to filter it down to some macro drivers that really transfer the market—and Bitcoin proper now has these working in its favor.”

Till altcoins present significant breadth and break their long-term resistance constructions, Edwards’ message is evident: Bitcoin will soar. Altcoins received’t—at the least, not but.

At press time, BTC traded at $105,557.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com